To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI) Explained

TCPI: The Forward-Looking Efficiency Target

While CPI tells you how efficiently the project has performed so far, TCPI tells you how efficiently it must perform going forward to meet a specific budget target. It is a forward-looking metric that answers: "What cost performance do we need on all remaining work to finish within budget?" TCPI is one of the less intuitive EVM formulas, which is exactly why the PMP exam tests it.

The Two TCPI Formulas

TCPI has two versions depending on the budget target:

TCPI Based on BAC (Original Budget)

TCPI = (BAC − EV) / (BAC − AC)

This version asks: "What CPI do we need on remaining work to finish at the original budget?" Use this when the original budget has not been revised and stakeholders want to know if the original target is still achievable.

TCPI Based on EAC (Revised Budget)

TCPI = (BAC − EV) / (EAC − AC)

This version asks: "What CPI do we need on remaining work to finish at the revised forecast?" Use this when a new EAC has been established and management wants to know if the revised target is achievable.

Interpreting TCPI

The interpretation is practical and immediately useful:

• TCPI > 1.0: The team must be more efficient than average on remaining work. The higher the TCPI, the harder it will be to meet the target. A TCPI above 1.2 or so is generally considered unrealistic.
• TCPI = 1.0: The team must perform at exactly the planned rate on remaining work. Achievable if current issues are resolved.
• TCPI < 1.0: The team can be less efficient than planned and still meet the target. This typically occurs when the EAC provides more budget headroom than needed.

Worked Example

A project has BAC = $300,000, EV = $120,000, AC = $150,000.

TCPI (BAC) = ($300,000 − $120,000) / ($300,000 − $150,000) = $180,000 / $150,000 = 1.20

The team must achieve a CPI of 1.20 on all remaining work to finish at the original $300,000 budget. Given that current CPI = $120,000 / $150,000 = 0.80, jumping to 1.20 is a 50% improvement in efficiency — a significant challenge.

Now suppose management approves a revised EAC of $350,000:

TCPI (EAC) = ($300,000 − $120,000) / ($350,000 − $150,000) = $180,000 / $200,000 = 0.90

With the revised budget, the team only needs a CPI of 0.90 on remaining work — below 1.0, meaning they can be slightly less efficient than planned and still succeed. This is achievable since it is close to the current CPI of 0.80 plus some improvement.

TCPI and Decision-Making

TCPI is a decision-support tool. When TCPI (BAC) is very high — say 1.5 or above — the practical interpretation is that meeting the original budget is nearly impossible. At that point, the project manager should:

1. Present the TCPI data to the sponsor with a recommendation to revise the budget (establish a new EAC).
2. Evaluate scope reduction options that could bring the budget back in line.
3. Assess whether the project is still viable.

Relationship Between TCPI and CPI

A useful pattern for the PMP exam:

• When TCPI (BAC) equals CPI, the project is exactly on track — current performance, if maintained, will meet the budget.
• When TCPI (BAC) exceeds CPI, the project must improve to meet budget — the bigger the gap, the harder the recovery.
• When TCPI (EAC) is close to CPI, the revised budget is realistic given current performance.

Common PMP Traps

• Using the wrong denominator — BAC − AC for original budget, EAC − AC for revised budget.
• Forgetting that TCPI is about future performance, not past. CPI looks backward; TCPI looks forward.
• Not recognizing that a very high TCPI means the target is impractical.

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